opinion
one year on
Lot of water has gone under the global bridge since last Christmas. In the U.K. we were looking at the demise of the high street company, Woolworths. That retailer had the proverbial writing on the wall well before the financial crash, which has now taken the country to the brink financially. The real financial rescuers of the whole debacle have been you and I, all told. The politicians mentioned fiscal figures, which none of us could really relate to. The bankers proved themselves to be, what we knew all along, that is, the employees of the greedy within our society. We knew we loaned them our savings for a scant return in interest in the past, and we knew that, when it came down to the crunch, they would cover each others backsides, pay themselves huge salary increases, and pay themselves huge bonuses additionally and unashamedly. Our money all told. Who coined the term 'you can bank on that one'? Not anymore. The vibe these guys are sending out are, yes the country is in the deepest financial pit we could have ever imagined, we got you into this place, thanks for bailing us out, and can we have another huge payout, so we don't have to work again for the rest of our lives? Now if Jesus was in this particular marketplace today, he would be throwing the banking stalls across the shop floor all over again, and who could blame him? Their defence (if you can call it a defence at all) is that, to keep the best, you need to fabulously reward these individuals in order they stay in the country and not leave for greener monetary pastures. Does beg several questions. Whereabouts are these greener financial pastures? Why do we need to hold on to these individuals, who have 'gotten us all into another fine mess'?, and, if it is only reward that keeps these guys here, and not performance (which is hugely suspect at best), why don't we open the departure lounge right now? I think even I could have run the economy better than those on the current teamsheet. I remember being in hospital 3 years ago and talking to a nurse, asking her simply, 'why do you do this job?' Her answer was 'I want to help people and make them better if I can'. Bless her heart. At that time we were being informed that, if we didn't fabulously reward some senoir members of that profession, they would also all go abroad for richer financial rewards. These bankers and doctors need to take a deep breath and ask themselves 'just who am I serving?' The customer, patient.....or myself? When all is said and done, if it is the financial rewards that motivates these people, I don't want them running my bank account, let alone operating on me!
Woolworths days were numbered, way before the crunch hit us all, as I mentioned previously. 'Hit' is the operative word. What seems to have transpired regarding our reactions, are similar to those which might have been developing during previous disasters throughout history. Lets take the example of the Titanic, following the collision with that iceberg some century or so ago. Some of the passengers reactions might have been to run for the lifeboats, demand they be launched, in order that those individuals would have rescued, themselves, before any others on board that ill fated vessel. A second set of passengers would have told themselves that the boat was unsinkable and headed back to the bar, listened to the band, whilst downing a strong brandy. The last set of folks would have all looked at the situation, turned to each other, and began co-operating in trying to find a solution to the oncoming disaster. It is the latter folks, who adapt to these changing set of circumstances, who will eventually prevail. Those at the bar will perish, but convince themselves there was nothing that they could have done anyway, and, hey, what a way to go. The selfish may survive, however, they will be held accountable should they survive, and there is always that 'conscience' thing going on for the rest of their lives.
The financial crisis has changed things for the foreseeable future. Whether that is a good or bad thing will largely be down to your own disposition regarding your fellow man or woman. The balance of resources is something that will become an ineviatable issue over the next century. In truth, population has risen extraordinarily since the prospectors first struck the 'black gold' in the ground in the latter part of the 19th century. Sure oil was used on a much lesser scale prior to those times, however, the industrial revolution has affected everything radically, in a very short space in time, in the great scheme of things. Money may have been sloshing around the economies of the World over the last 50 or so years, almost to the point that the bankers have become drunk with the stuff! We have lost touch with reality, and the credit crunch will make us more human in the long term I believe. Look at the two graphs below. The top one is a population graph indicating the huge rise in population due to the massive increase in the use of oil. The lower graph indicates that we have just passed the peak of highest production. As Lenny Williams once sang 'There's Only So Much Oil In The Ground'.....
population growth
oil production
You may have also become aware that the untouchable Gulf States are now seeing the recession hit them. Dubai is beginning to look like a huge financial dinosaur. I was there a year ago. Manic building, in an almost panic buying mentality. Ironically, it has had the effect of distracting the attention from the fact the many of the oil rich countries are now sourcing their product off shore. Drilling in the sea? Imagine the overheads involved. I think they are now realising that the long steep climb to the year 2000 production peak, is now becoming a slow decline. How does this affect us?
Well, the cost of crude oil affects the markets. We all know that. What we miss on a day to day basis is the reliance on oil which all of us are a party to in our everyday lives. We have become so used to the material status quo that, well, look at yourself right now. The machines which sowed the clothing you are wearing right now, were made with the help of oil. The engines which drove those machines. Plastic is made from oil based products. The materials in your shoes, your make-up, the printed paper you write upon and read, the bus you travel to work in, the train, the airplane, everything relies on oil. The computer I writing on right now is made from plastic, The wiring within the computer the same, the wiring in your house, the internet, mobile phone, even sending man to the moon would not have been possible without oil. Oil is incredibly useful....and incredibly polluting. The decline in oil ought to cause a trigger effect, which should have us looking at utilising the oil we have left, over the next century or so, with a mind to manufacturing wind and solar alternatives in order that we leave our children the tools to exist to a reasonable standard of living, rather than throwing a huge party and following the example set by the banking community and those who ran for the lifeboats, selfishly, on the Titanic.....or your senior doctor for that matter!!
I think we are a resourceful animal as a species. I don't hold with the feminist Rebecca West's assertion that 'all men are lunatics and all women are idiots'. We need to beware of generalisations. They are counterproductive and I think they undersell us as a species. Today we need visionaries and not those who take advantage of oncoming social depressions. When we are depressed we can look for scapegoats, which is something we should be aware of when listening to the empty vessels which make the loudest noise at times such as these. Comparisons just make people lesser individuals. Let the bankers run for their own proverbial lifeboats. We should begin by looking at our own lives and see what we can do to lessen the imapct on the environment and those directly around us. We shouldn't lecture the emerging economies regarding matters which we are ourselves hugely guilty of in the past. We should be honest and say, those we elected to serve us, served themselves and we are truly very sorry for that. We would like you not to make the same errors we did, how can we help you? Tell, us what you need, we have learned from our own burns and we would like to help you avoid being burned yourself.
Heavy, heavy, heavy? Sure, but being hit by a bus is not pleasant. If we can see that bus coming from a long way off, we can do something about not being hit by the vehicle.
Personally, in our lives here, what has changed in the last year, is any spare money we have had in the home (not a great deal), we have spent making the house greener and more cost effective. It will cost us now, but will save us hugely in the long term. When the house is handed over to our daughter, her bills will be lessened, and she will be affecting the environment is a much lesser way, additionally. The car has gone, the boiler updated, all the windows have been doubled up and the domestic waste has been halved. All small things, however, governments will have to do likewise, either willingly, or eventually dragged kicking and screaming! My real faith is in people. My fear is that, as oil becomes scarcer, governments will use every method at their disposal in order to obtain the material. Personally, I am grateful for oil. If it wasn't for oil, we would have not seen a vinyl album, thus none of us would have heard Stevie at his finest.
Here is one scary statistic. For every tyre on your, or your parents car, the manufacturer has to use 8 gallons of oil to make that one tyre. 32 gallons for the whole car. Remember the wiring, circuit boards, steering wheels etc....which all have to be taken into account well before you drive into your local gas station to fill up.
Society is a long way away from going pear shaped just yet, so enjoy the Christmas break, and afterwards do think about getting the grey matter moving regarding things environmentally. Looking at this funny little meter the gas/electric people provided for us for free here right now, we are looking at an energy saving of one third overall by making these small changes. Money you will be investing in yourself, which will help with the bills, and will go to make your local street a little more of a nicer place to live. Doesn't make you a eco-warrior. It just means you are not a banker, a politician, or a lifeboat hog on the Titanic! Not a bad place to be.
Toby Walker 17.12.09
august 2009...how are you doing?
recession
'a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.'Thought I would undergo a 'wiping of the clean slate', now the dust has settled regarding the exploits of the British politicians, and we can now begin to get a clearer indication of just how severely the global recession has affected people. The Opinion page was bulging at the seams here, so the previous page has been archived, but is still there if you follow the links below.
Alan Greenspan (above) and his 'de-regulated bunch of cowboys' hit town, big time, last year. We borrowed so much money to prop up the banks that, the twelve figures which go to make up the written 'trillions' (on paper) our governements borrowed, also go to make up the number of individual cells in one person's body. It is a useful illustration which gives the individual a benchmark as to how to come to terms with the numbers handed over to these corporate institutions in order to 'correct their mistakes'. To see a human cell, you need to look through the lens of a powerful microsope. Those small pomegranite seed like objects that float across the glass on the viewing slide each represent the same number of pounds or dollars the banks have been given in order to get us all out borrowing and spending again. One cell equals one pound or dollar. The truth of that set of circumstances is that, the banks misbehaved, and should have been punished. Those that had consciences, well they apologised (after a fashion). Those that chose not to do so, still award themselves huge bonuses, which, at best, is completely distasteful, and at worst, ought to be seen as criminal, and treated as such.
I watched the head of Barclays Bank yesterday explaining how it is important for banks to take risks. Barclays had just make a 3 billion pound profit. Nice for those who receive their £100,000 half yearly bonuses, however, the gap between their world, and the real world outside that industry has become so immense, that the scene has become almost Dickensian. Upstairs Downstairs, if you wish. Speaking personally, I have witnessed the design industry collapsing to a point where, if there is any work around, it is short term and all payments have become negotiable. It is commonplace that the biggest burger retailer on the high street, now requires a prospective employee to work for 8 weeks, unpaid, after which it is up to the employer as to whether a permanent position is then available. If not, well they have had an employee for two months for free.
In the real world, the employment market is declining, whilst those still lucky enough to be in full time work, have seen their working conditions suffer, and their management adopting positions which utilise whatever draconian measures they desire, in order to achieve whatever they see fit for those in positions of power. To put it bluntly, the folks I know who are in work, are unhappy at their companies, and are 'treading water' until something better comes along. That 'life bus' will be one which will take a long time in arriving, it is my belief. Whatever a politician tells you, will be in contrast to your own experiences right now. Look out of your window and see what is developing in your neighbours households at this point in time. I would bet that many household bread winners are seeing more of their families than usual, as part time employment is becoming very much the norm. Costs cut in order to maintain the salaries of those who are at the helms of each relevant institution. Their biggest mistake, which is manifesting itself at this point in time, is this. If a work environment has become so unpleasant for a skilled individual to function within that place of work, when the time arrives that the institutions need to re-recruit, as the garden is looking more financially rosy at that particular time, those who have been mistreated, will remember the recession, and will not return to the fold. Many people of my age (fifties) will hold out for retirement. Many younger employees will be advised by those who previously left workplaces, just exactly how things once were at these companies, and warn the younger folks should the economy begin to suffer again. In many ways, recession is a good time for a company to sow the seeds of loyalty within their staffing ranks. People have long memories, and they will support the companies which support them when things got a little tough going out there.
In the U.K., we are headed, erratically, towards a general election next year. Our current unelected Prime Minister and his merry band of benefit cheats, are telling us everything in the garden is rosy, and that the worst of the recession is now over. The actual figures contradict that viewpoint. 5 years before those in negative equity can begin to get back onto a level playing field. Odd figures which come out of the recently privatised Northern Rock Bank in the U.K. state that they made a loss of £750 million in the first six months of 2009. Apparently all due to people defaulting on their mortgages. In the real world, people are hurting. The pound shops have never seen such a boom. Those who buy there, who used to be the unemployed or those of a modest disposition, now are shopping alongside people with posh voices and suits. There seems to be a shame, which many folks are carrying around with themselves, born out of wanting something better for themselves and their families, working toward that goal, only for the Alan Greenspan's of this world to remove that optimism and hope and firmly reposition individuals back in their ill-considered, wrongly perceived places.
There are those who look to apportion blame at the doorsteps of groups such as the Bilderberg elite, who seem to have their own mysterious political agenda's. I must say that I find it strange that Mr Greenspan has been placed in charge of righting the wrongs of his previous conceptual ideologies. Bit like Adolf Hitler being placed in charge of ensuring there would be no further rise in fascism post 1945!
I speak to many business people on a day to day basis. Working for myself, I have to. This past 6 months or so, have brought very few new projects to my front door. All of my work colleagues are experiencing the same. It is as if we are all in some sort of suspended animation, waiting for the green light to be turned on again, so we can all get back to work. My fear is that, when that green light is turned on, in the same way the banks were slow to begin lending again, the green light will be a gentle flicker and the companies out there will be slow to begin ordering and employing again. If I was a student right now, I would take a year out and go help a charity or travel the World. Recessions are very hard on the young. We teach them to work hard as they will achieve a decent position within a company if they do so. We make promises without proviso's. Right now we lied to them. Not our fault, or our teachers either. Just a series of unfortunate events, which were instigated by those who sought to lend money to those who had no wherewithal in returning those funds at a later date. You and I both know that situation was untenable, should have never been allowed to happen in the first place, however, those in the know thought they knew better, and they obviously didn't.
So what of the rest of 2009? Predictions? Well, by the looks of things as they stand, I would imagine that the days of, even just two years ago, will never arrive back again. Perhaps that is for the best. Recessions can be dangerous, as the far right can 'make hay' with the weak minded, however, if any good will come out of all of this, well, I would hope we would all become more public spirited, less materialistic, and try to be as optimistic as we can. One thing for certain is we have all been cast adrift in the same lifeboat. What didn't kill us will make us stronger. We will have to reside in this state of supended animation for at least another year, I believe, and after that, I am hoping a slow crawl back to some sort of dignity for all of us. At least we are not alone in this mess, and we can console ourselves that the mess is not of your or my doing.
Toby Walker 6.8.09
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